WHY WE SHOULD WORRY

Our globe economy is based on the capitalist system which assumes forever a positive Gdp – GDP. At the same time 196 governments in December 2017 have signed onto the Paris understanding limiting global temperature rise to less than two degrees C past 2100 from the pre-industrial age. IPCC even go equally far as stating that the world would benefit with a one.5 degree C by 2100 giving united states a sustainable and equitable evolution. However already farthermost weather is showing destruction in terms of hurricanes, flooding, drought etc … in many parts of the earth. Despite all this, governments have not contradistinct their policies in pursuing a higher and college growth charge per unit [i]. Just a few days ago, we have been told that real Gross domestic product in the The states increased iii.2 % in the first quarter of 2019 according to the "advance" gauge released past the Bureau of Economic Analysis [2]. In the fourth quarter of 2018, real GDP increased ii.2 per centum. Manifestly we proceed 'business concern as usual' and are not concerned about using upwards our resources!

Energy consumption worldwide grew past 2.iii% in 2018, nearly twice the average charge per unit of growth since 2010, driven past the observed robust economic system [3].  More than 40% of the growth in 2017.

Electricity continues to assert itself equally the "fuel" of the future, with global electricity need growing by iv% in 2018 to more than 23,000 TWh. This rapid growth is pushing electricity towards a 20% share in total final consumption of energy. Increasing power generation was responsible for a little more than half of the growth in master energy demand.

What are the consequences of the college Gross domestic product that nosotros are pursuing?

Yes, we are rapidly depleting our resources. Unfortunately most of the need for energy falls on the utilize of fossil free energy, oil, gas and coal. With Global free energy demand increasing past 2.1% in 2017, equally 72% was in fossil fuel [1] [3], 25% in renewables and remainder past nuclear. Naturally this results in a rise in CO 2 emission – by 1.7 % in 2017, reaching a celebrated high of 33.1 gigatons.

LIMIT  OF FOSSIL FUELS

In this article we want to point out categorically the fact that there is a LIMIT to the fossil fuels on earth that we are gobbling up. We are oblivious of the fact that there will be a time, measured in decades, when these fuels volition run out. Considering of global population rise, there is a growing need for free energy.  This growth is endangering our future. What will we do when fossil fuels run out? What free energy sources tin can nosotros rely on after this happen?

In figure ane [4] we prove the future free energy reserves in billions of oil equivalent, Btoe, as a part of yr. While nosotros obliviously employ up fossil fuels without taking stock of near what time to come reserves look similar, we should take note of the endpoints shown here. These endpoints are dangerously close: Since our society is so dependent on fossil fuels, information technology therefore is extremely important for us to know when these fuels will run out according to [4]:

Oil will end by 2052   – thirty years time

Gas will end by 2060  – forty years time

Coal will terminal till 2090 –   70 years time

All the same, according to BP [5], earth has 53 years of oil reserves left at current rate of consumption.

Figure ane  Energy reserves in billion tonnes of oil equivalent – Btoe [4]

Gioietta_1_23

According to the 2019 Annual Energy Outlook [6] global Gdp growth between 2017 and 2040 isexpected to average 3.four%. The world energy need volition grow by i/3 through 2040, driven mostly by ascent consumption in transportation in People's republic of china, Bharat and parts of Asia.

This is plain unsustainable. These are horrific figures that will happen sooner than we tin can possibly mitigate.

OIL

Global oil demand grew by 1.3%. in 2018. Today oil supplies about 40% of the world's energy and 96% of its transportation energy. It has consumed 875 billion barrels [7]. The world has been consuming an equivalent of over 11 billion tonnes per yr [4]. Crude oil reserves are vanishing at a rate of more than 4 billion tonnes a year. Many oil wells take already peaked and new wells are becoming more than hard to find. Another one,000 billion barrels of proved and probable reserves remain to be recovered.

In Figure 2 we testify the electric current dominance of OPEC which is controlled by most Middle Eastern countries. However over the next 3 years, information technology is projected that United states of america production volition cover 80% of the world's demand growth. US will turn into 'oil nation' with record exports 'eating' into OPEC market share [8]

Effigy 2   Pct share of world liquid supply past year Screen Shot 2019-05-23 at 22.02.59 This week the IEA,  International Energy Bureau, released 'Oil 2018' [nine] its five yr market analysis and forecast. The report notes that "over the side by side 3 years, gains from the Us alone will cover 80% of the earth's demand growth." It projects a growth past another 1000000 barrels per twenty-four hour period from 2017 levels by 2022. The base case projects growth of around three million barrels per day over the next 5 years. Overall projection is that global oil product capacity will grow by half dozen.4 millions by 2023.

BP has as well revised its prediction which is similar. In its recently released 2018 Energy Outlook [10] , it predicts that the U.S. volition become "by far the largest producer of liquid fuels."

Up to 2020, globe oil consumption has been rising past about 60% because of growing transportation. Prc and Bharat accept the highest charge per unit of growth. Communist china at rate of 7.5% and India five.5%.

However, at that place has been a ramp upwardly of shale oil and gas extraction. Fracking [eleven] involves the extraction of shale gas by drilling into the the World and pumping boreholes with a loftier pressure water mixture. This is h2o and electricity intensive. It uses huge amounts of free energy to get even more energy and also uses chemicals and metals which toxicant the groundwater and the surround. Information technology is a growing technology which needs our critical estimation.

Fracking has been safely used in the Usa since 1947. More than 1.7 million Us wells accept been completed using the fracking process, producing more than seven billion barrels of oil and 600 trillion cubic feet of natural gas.

NATURAL GAS

Gas totalled 23% of total energy need, but grew at a 4.half-dozen% charge per unit in 2018. Gas had the second highest share of total electricity generation at 23%, or half-dozen,091 TWh. How much natural gas does the United States accept, and how long volition information technology final? [12]

What is the volume of world natural gas reserves? As of January 1, 2018, there were an estimated 7,124 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) of full world proved reserves of gross natural gas [xiii]  From IEA. Final updated: March 8, 2019.

Yet, for the US, the U.S. Energy Information Administration estimates in the Annual Free energy Outlook 2019 that every bit of Jan one 2017 there were most 2,459 trillion cubic anxiety (Tcf) of technically recoverable resources (TRR) of dry out natural gas in the United States.

Taking into consideration the current rate of natural gas production and current known natural gas reserves, we have about 52.8 years worth of natural gas reserves left. We volition nonetheless take gas and coal left by the time oil runs out in 2052. But if nosotros increase gas production to fill the energy gap left by oil, and so those reserves volition only requite us an additional eight years, taking u.s.a. to 2060.  We should realize that burning gas impacts on global warming because of CO 2 emission.

COAL

Global coal need is upwards 0.seven% in 2018 [15]. Coal's share of total electricity generation totaled x,116 TWh, up 2.6% from 2017, equally information technology commanded 38% of full generation around the world.

Coal is the oldest fuel we have and it has taken few hundred millions of years to form from vegetation. The United states of america, China and India are still actively mining coal. How long volition coal concluding? It volition depend on new technology, may be 150 years in gild to supplant oil and gas.

According to the IEA, in 2017 full global coal consumption in energy terms increased by ane percent, or 50.4 megatons of coal equivalent (Mtce). Once more, Communist china and India lead the increase in consumption. Coal fired power generation continues to exist the single largest emitter, accounting  for thirty% of all free energy related CO 2 emissions.

SOURCES OF NON-FOSSIL ENERGY

While the world is gobbling up fossil fuel, we are besides developing culling fuels.

Renewable energy – solar and wind

The world is actively developing renewable sources of free energy – solar, wind and hydro – though the latter is express because of global warming and overall lack of water. Already renewable free energy contribute ane/four of the world'south demand and is the highest growth charge per unit of any energy source in 2017 [16]. Global renewable power production increased by 6.iii% in 2017. Red china and EU contribute 50% of the the increase in renewable based electricity generation followed by US, Republic of india and Nihon.  The growth rate in 2017 is around 75 Million tonnes oil equivalent (Mtoe).

Nuclear energy

As fossil fuels begin to disappear, nuclear power is becoming more and more than prominent because it is the only alternative base organization capable of providing electricity continuously 24 hours a twenty-four hour period. Information technology is carbon-free, vital to our clean free energy future. It was first developed in the 1950s and since then its safety features accept been much improved. Now over eleven% of the world's electricity is produced from nuclear energy. Nuclear grew by 3.3% in 2018 mainly as a issue of new chapters in Cathay and the restart of 4 reactors in Japan [17].

Uranium may last over 150 years. But the coming of thorium-based nuclear reactors has been touted as the futurity of energy [18]. First, thorium is more abundant in nature than uranium. Thorium 232 can be used in conjunction with Uranium, to transmute to Uranium 233 to exist used in various kinds of reactors. A diversity pf reactors may be used, in particular molten salt reactors. Here we want to emphasize a new side by side generation high temperature gas cooled reactors (HTGR), which is safety, clean and sustainable. Information technology is well suited for thorium-based fuels in the class of "TRISO" coated particles of thorium mixed with plutonium or enriched uranium coated with pyrolytic carbon and silicon carbide layers which retain fission gases. The fuel particles are embedded in a graphite matrix that is very stable at high temperatures. Such fuels can be irradiated for very long periods and thus deeply burn down their original fissile charge. China is experimenting the then called  'pebble bed' design which is very stable and very rubber.

A novel applied science to exist explored in view of that the earth has only 60% of water information technology needs is the cogeneration of nuclear energy with desalination where the heat of the h2o cooling the reactor is used for high pressure level desalination.  The membrane used can be a nanotechnology graphene.

SUMMARY [3]

Tabular array 1   Global primary energy need – fuel share – in 2018   Mtoe

Screen Shot 2019-05-23 at 22.03.12

REFERENCES

[one] Extreme weather devastates, where is the action? Gioietta kuo. Oct 2018.   Stanford MAHB

[two] Gdp | U.S. Bureau of Economical Analysis (BEA)

[three] Global Energy & CO2 Status Written report – iea.org

[4] When Will The Earth Really Run Out Of Fossil Fuel?

[5] How long volition globe'south oil reserves terminal? 53 years, says BP

[half dozen]  World Energy Outlook – International Energy Agency

[vii]  Future of Oil – IAGS

[8] U.S. Oil Producers Projected To Swallow OPEC's Tiffin – forbes.com

[nine]  Oil 2018 – iea.org

[10]  BP Energy Outlook | Free energy economics | Home

[eleven] What is Fracking? | Shale Oil and Natural Gas – ipaa.org

[12]  How Much Natural Gas Is Left In The World, & When Will Nosotros Run …

[13] What is the book of world natural gas reserves? – FAQ – U.S …

[14] How much natural gas does the United states of america accept, and how …

[xv] Global coal need up 0.7% in 2018, largely due to Asia: IEA

[16] Renewables supply 25% of global power in 2017 – IEA

[17] Earth Nuclear Power Reactors – World Nuclear Association

[18]  Thorium – World Nuclear Association

The views and opinions expressed through the MAHB Website are those of the contributing authors and do not necessarily reflect an official position of the MAHB. The MAHB aims to share a range of perspectives and welcomes the discussions that they prompt.